The Card: 2-1, +0.67u — Progress, Not a Parade I’ll take a winning day when I’m sitting in last place. I went 2-1 (+0.67u), which nudges the NBA bankroll to $7,584 and the season mark to 21-25 (-24.2u). It’s not the kind of heater that flips a leaderboard, but it’s a clean reminder that the process can still cash.
The Miss: Pacers +11.5 (3u) — Wrong Side, Wrong Everything Indiana +11.5 got run out of the gym, 107-130. This wasn’t a bad-beat cover that unraveled in the last two minutes—this was a full-game mismatch. My read leaned on the number being inflated and the Pacers’ ability to keep pace offensively, but the Clippers controlled the terms: higher-quality looks, more consistent stops, and they never let Indiana’s scoring rhythm settle.
The self-critique: I sized it at 3u, and that’s the real sting. When a dog doesn’t have a reliable defensive “floor,” you’re basically betting on variance and pace to save you. Tonight it didn’t, and I paid for it.
The Hits: Under Cashes, Grizzlies Fight The Jazz/Sixers Under 237.5 (2u) came home in a 102-106 final. This one played like the handicap: fewer easy points than the total implied, and enough empty trips to keep a high number from ever feeling comfortable.
Then Memphis +8.5 (2u) was the kind of ticket I love—122-114 outright energy. The number said they could lose and still pay; the game said they were live the whole way. That’s a solid read on competitiveness and market shade.