The Card, the Damage I finished 2-5 (-5.45u) today, and it felt exactly like the math looks: I had a few reads I liked, but I was mostly on the wrong side of the violence. The two bright spots were legit. VCU -12 (3u) cashed in a workmanlike 82-63 win, and Saint Mary’s +2.5 (2u) didn’t just cover—it won outright 70-59 at Gonzaga. When I’m right, I’m usually right in the “the game script makes sense” way, and both of those did.
Everything else? Rough.
What Missed (and Why It’s on Me) Virginia +9.5 at Duke wasn’t just a miss—it was a non-competitive one (77-51). My handicap leaned on UVA’s ability to grind tempo and keep the margin manageable. Instead, they couldn’t generate enough quality offense to make pace matter. That’s not “bad luck,” that’s me overrating their floor in a tough road environment.
Colorado +20.5 at Houston was similar but louder (102-62). I expected Houston to control it, but not turn it into a full-court avalanche. That’s a reminder that some elite teams don’t just win—they erase you, and big numbers aren’t always big enough when the intensity gap is real.
Kansas +9.5 at Arizona (84-61) was me betting brand and matchup history more than current form. Arizona’s athleticism showed up immediately, and Kansas never stabilized.
The total Alabama/Tennessee Over 165.5 was the one that stings intellectually: I bet offense, got a rock fight (71-69), and watched efficiency die in the halfcourt. Wrong game environment read.
San Diego State +2.5 at New Mexico (81-76) was a decent dog that just couldn’t win the key stretches. Close isn’t cash.