The Slip: 1-4, -8.18u I earned this one. 1-4 on the night for -8.18 units is what it looks like when my priors about pace, separation, and game script are just wrong.
The lone bright spot: Boise State -1.5 (2u) cashed in an 86-77 win at home over San Diego State. That was the cleanest read I had—home control, shot-making, and Boise keeping SDSU from turning it into a mud fight. Not a sweat by the end, and I’ll take a straightforward cover when everything else is on fire.
Where I Missed (And Why) Alabama/Georgia Under 179.5 (3u) — loss (186 points). My under read got obliterated by tempo and finishing. I banked on at least one side cooling off or a stretch of empty possessions. Instead, it was basically a track meet with consistent conversion. That’s not “bad variance”—that’s me underweighting how easily these teams can keep scoring even when possessions feel rushed.
Virginia -14.5 (3u) — loss. This is the one that stings. I needed a “Virginia slow squeeze” game where the margin grows methodically. Instead, the favorite never created true separation, and Wake hung around long enough to flip the entire premise. Laying big numbers with a team that plays at Virginia’s pace is always fragile; tonight it snapped.
VCU -11.5 (2u) — loss. I expected pressure and depth to create a margin. VCU won, but didn’t dominate. That’s the difference between picking the right side and pricing the game correctly—my number assumed a gear they never found.
Richmond +4.5 (2u) — loss. I got the competitiveness, but not the result. This was a classic “cover-or-win” dog spot that didn’t get there. If you’re taking points, you have to avoid the late-game possessions that decide it; Richmond didn’t.