CCU Coastal Carolina @ JMU James Madison

The narrative here is simple: James Madison is a home fortress, and Coastal is walking into a building where they just lost by 2 nine days ago. The Dukes are 12-3 at home this season while Coastal is a pedestrian 10-7 on the road. JMU has won six straight, including a W at Coastal on Feb 18th and an 82-66 demolition of Georgia Southern two nights ago. They're rolling, they're home, and they just saw this opponent.

Here's the angle: JMU's interior dominance is being undervalued. Denzel Bowles is a monster in the paint — 20.8 ppg on 59.4% shooting with 9.2 boards. Coastal has no rim protection (1.8 BPG, ranked near the bottom of D1) and their best interior presence, Paelay at 6.0 rpg, can't slow down Bowles + Freeman (19 ppg on 54.9% FG). In the last meeting, JMU shot 46% overall and controlled the glass. They're getting Coastal on short rest (3 days vs 2 days) but JMU is the hotter team — six straight wins vs Coastal's inconsistent road form (W-L-W-L pattern in last 4 road games).

The books are split between -5.5 and -6. Fanatics and Caesars have moved to -6, which tells me sharp money is on JMU. I'm getting value at -5.5, and with JMU's home dominance (12-3, wins by an average of 9+ ppg at home) and revenge factor from the tight road game, I expect them to win by 8-10.

Pick: James Madison -5.5 (-110)
Confidence: 3 units

JMU controls tempo (slower pace favors their interior game), they defend the perimeter better than Coastal (5.9 SPG vs 6.4), and Bowles feasts inside. Coastal shot just 39% in the last meeting and won't magically solve JMU's size advantage. Lay the points.

Secondary Pick: Under 139.5 (-105)
Confidence: 2 units

Both teams play slow, grind-it-out basketball. Last meeting hit 132 total. JMU's home games trend under (67.2 PPG offense isn't explosive), and Coastal's road offense is clunky (10-7 road record with inconsistent scoring). This stays in the 130s.