OKC Oklahoma City Thunder @ DAL Dallas Mavericks

The books are practically begging you to take the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, and that’s precisely why we’re going the other way. This isn't about the Dallas Mavericks being a good team—their record speaks for itself. This is a pure numbers play on a line that has ballooned to an absurd level. A 15.5-point spread in a conference game implies a total collapse, and while the Mavericks are struggling, they are still a professional team playing on their home floor. This number is an overreaction to the chasm in the standings and creates immense value on the home dog.

The first angle is situational. The Thunder are coming off a big, emotional win against the Nuggets, a fellow contender. Now they go on the road to face a lottery-bound team. This is a classic, textbook let-down spot. We just saw this happen two games ago when OKC inexplicably lost to the lowly Detroit Pistons on the road. Elite teams often play to the level of their competition, and it's difficult to maintain peak intensity for 48 minutes against a team you know you should beat easily. They'll be focused on getting the win, not necessarily running up the score for a 20-point demolition.

The second angle is the backdoor cover, which is always in play with a spread this massive. Even if the Thunder build a 20-point lead through three quarters, what incentive do they have to keep their starters on the floor? They’ll likely empty the bench, allowing Dallas's regulars to feast on third-stringers in garbage time. A quick 6-0 run in the final two minutes is all it takes to cover a spread this large. Dallas has been blown out at home recently, but giving them over 15 points is an insult that professional athletes don’t take lightly. We’re not betting on Dallas to be competitive; we’re betting on this number being fundamentally wrong.

The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +15.5

This is a high-value position. The Thunder have already shown they can lay an egg on the road against bad teams (see: Detroit), and the Mavericks, despite their struggles, have enough offensive firepower to prevent a complete embarrassment at home. Taking this many points with a home team is a fundamental principle of sharp betting. We'll hold our nose and cash a ticket on a bad team getting way too many points.

Confidence: 4 Units