PHI Philadelphia 76ers @ BOS Boston Celtics

The Celtics just hung 148 points on Brooklyn at home two nights ago, and now they're getting Philly coming off a 3-day rest advantage. Normally that's the kind of spot where sharps lean toward the rested dog, but the 76ers' road form all season has been solid (17-11), and they're riding a 3-game win streak with blowout wins at Indy and Minny. This isn't the same inconsistent Philly team we saw in January — they're healthy, they're clicking, and they've covered in 5 of their last 6 away games.

Here's what the line isn't accounting for: Boston just played their highest-scoring game of the season and then had two days rest, not three. That extra day matters when you're trying to match Philadelphia's fresh legs. The 76ers also thrive in pace-up environments — they scored 135 twice in this recent stretch — and Boston's defense looked porous against Brooklyn (111 allowed). The Celtics are 19-9 at home, but 6 of those 9 losses came when they were favored by 7+. They don't always step on throats in revenge spots.

The 9.5-point spread assumes Boston blows them out. I'm not buying it. Philly's offensive efficiency over the last 10 days has been elite, and they're getting points in a game where they can keep pace. The Celtics might win, but this feels like a 5-7 point game, not double digits.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 at -110. 3 units.

The secondary angle here is the total. Boston's tempo at home + Philly's recent offensive explosion = fireworks. Both teams can score in bunches, and 221.5 feels light given the Celtics just dropped 148 and the 76ers have topped 124 in 3 straight. I like Over 221.5 as a 2-unit backup.

Confidence: 3u on the spread, 2u on the total.