PHI Philadelphia 76ers @ NOP New Orleans Pelicans

This is a classic case of the market overvaluing a team's season-long record while ignoring a catastrophic collapse in recent form. The Philadelphia 76ers may have 30 wins, but they are not playing like a winning basketball team right now. This number is set as if the 76ers are simply a solid road favorite against a bad team, but it fails to account for the fact they are in a complete nosedive, making them an incredibly vulnerable favorite.

The first angle is Philadelphia’s disastrous form. They have lost five of their last six games, and the losses have been ugly. They were just blown out at home in consecutive games, losing by 10 to the Hawks and by an unbelievable 49 points to the Knicks. Before that, they went 1-2 on a road trip where they gave up 135 points to Portland. A team with defensive efforts this poor and morale this low has no business being a road favorite of more than a possession against anyone. This isn't a slump; it's a full-blown crisis, and laying points with them on the road is burning money.

The second angle is the value on the home underdog getting a key number. The New Orleans Pelicans are not a good team, as their 15-42 record clearly shows. However, they are catching +3.5 (and +4 at some books), a critical number in the NBA. We don't need them to pull off the outright upset; we just need them to stay competitive against a team that is spiraling. The Pelicans have shown some fight recently, securing double-digit wins over the Kings and Timberwolves in the last couple of weeks. At home against a reeling opponent, they have more than enough to keep this game within a possession. We are betting on Philadelphia's dysfunction more than we are on New Orleans' competence, and at this price, that's a wager worth making.

This is a quintessential "hold your nose and take the points" spot. We're fading a team in freefall and backing a home dog getting a valuable buffer on the spread.

The Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5
Confidence: 3 units