Two struggling teams limping to the finish line — 12-16 vs 12-16, both coming off losses, both desperate for a conference win. The market opened this pick'em and drifted to Southern Illinois -1.5, likely on Drake's six-game losing streak. But the books are sleeping on something critical: Southern Illinois thrives in chaos, and Drake can't handle it.
Southern Illinois averages 7.9 steals per game — one of the best marks in mid-major basketball. Drake turns it over 14.6 times per game, second-worst in the conference. When you force a team that already struggles with possessions into a track meet, bad things happen. The Salukis also grab 10.8 offensive rebounds per game compared to Drake's measly 8.5, creating second-chance opportunities against a Drake team that's been outrebounded in five of six losses.
The offensive firepower difference is stark. Southern Illinois scores 74.4 PPG to Drake's 67.2, and the Salukis shoot 38.7% from three compared to Drake's 34.2%. Look at Drake's last six games — they've cracked 76 points once and lost all six. They're broken. Meanwhile, Southern Illinois just dropped 86 and 80 in their last two road wins. Sure, they lost to Bradley at home, but Bradley is actually decent (unlike Drake right now).
Drake's home court advantage is a mirage this year — they're 8-10 at home, and that includes losses to teams like UIC, Valparaiso, and Illinois State. The Bulldogs have five double-digit scorers, which sounds balanced until you realize none of them can take over a game when things get tight. Southern Illinois has Darren Brooks (16.5 PPG) and better depth scoring.
The total is set at 149.5, which feels low for a Southern Illinois team that pushes pace and forces turnovers. But Drake's offensive ineptitude and the Salukis' ability to control tempo on the road makes me lean into the spread instead. Southern Illinois has been the better team in close games this season, and Drake's six-game skid shows zero signs of mental toughness.
The Pick: Southern Illinois -1.5 (-110) — 3 units. The Salukis turn Drake over, dominate the glass, and win this by 6-8. Drake's at home, but they're playing like a team that wants the season to end.
Secondary Play: Over 149.5 (-108) — 2 units. Southern Illinois will push the pace, and if they force 15+ turnovers, we'll cruise past this number even with Drake's offensive struggles. The Salukis' transition game is underrated.
| SIU | DRKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 74.4 | PPG | 67.2 |
| 47.0% | FG% | 46.4% |
| 38.7% | 3PT% | 34.2% |
| 33.2 | RPG | 32 |
| 13.7 | APG | 13.5 |
| 7.9 | SPG | 4.1 |
| 12.5 | TOPG | 14.6 |
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Brooks | 16.5 | 5.7 | 2.7 |
| Jamaal Tatum | 15.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Quel'Ron House | 14.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Desmar Jackson | 14.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 |
| Tony Freeman | 13.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Quinn | 19.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| Ajay Calvin | 16.2 | 6.1 | 0.8 |
| Josh Young | 15.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Ryan Wedel | 15.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Leonard Houston | 14.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| Opp | Score | |
|---|---|---|
| H | Bradley | 60-70 |
| H | Evansville | 86-60 |
| A | Indiana State | 80-65 |
| H | Murray State | 81-91 |
| A | Illinois State | 54-50 |
| Opp | Score | |
|---|---|---|
| A | Northern Iowa | 62-86 |
| H | UIC | 70-80 |
| H | Valparaiso | 76-81 |
| A | Illinois State | 76-86 |
| A | Belmont | 90-103 |
| Book | Spread | ML Away | ML Home | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 1.5 | -126 | 105 | 149.5 |
| DraftKings | 1.5 | — | — | 149.5 |
| BetRivers | 1.5 | -124 | -103 | 149.5 |
| BetMGM | 1.5 | -135 | 110 | 149.5 |
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