MONT Montana -1.5 @ IDST Idaho State

Montana at Idaho State: The Revenge Narrative Nobody's Watching

Montana just beat Idaho State by 9 on their home court three weeks ago, and now the books have them favored by a measly 1.5 in Pocatello? This line screams disrespect to the better team. The Bengals are hemorrhaging on their own floor — they've lost 6 straight overall and got boat-raced by 30 at Idaho last week. Montana's efficiency metrics blow Idaho State out of the water: they shoot 49.6% and 44.6% from deep through their top two guards, while the Bengals are clanking along at 44.8%/33.4% and averaging just 71.2 ppg.

Here's the kicker: Montana dominates this matchup. They held Idaho State to 60 points at home on January 24th, and the Bengals haven't shown any signs of life since. Their recent schedule has been a gauntlet of blowouts — 88-65 at Portland State, 88-75 at Eastern Washington, 99-69 at Idaho. They're not just losing, they're getting run off the court. Montana, meanwhile, just played competitive basketball against Montana State (lost by 11) and beat Idaho 73-68 at home. The quality gap is real.

The only argument for Idaho State is "home court," but they're 7-6 at home and just lost three straight there before the Idaho road trip. Montana is 5-6 on the road, but that includes quality opponents and close losses. The books are giving you a 5-6 road team as only 1.5-point favorites over a team that lost by 9 to them three weeks ago and hasn't won since. That's a 3-4 point gift.

Montana's offensive firepower (Money Williams, Anthony Johnson, Andrew Strait) will feast on a defense that allowed 99 to Idaho last week. Idaho State's five-day rest advantage is neutralized by the fact Montana also had five days. This is a spot where the better team, getting no respect, simply executes and wins comfortably.

The Pick: Montana -1.5 (-110) | 3.5 units

Montana wins this outright by 6-10. Take the short number and sleep easy.

Secondary Pick: Under 149.5 (-105) | 2 units

Idaho State's offensive ineptitude (61, 69, 75, 65 in their last four losses) combined with Montana's solid defense makes this a grind-it-out affair. Both teams play slow — the Bengals can't score, Montana doesn't need to run. Under cashes comfortably in the 68-62 range.

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