MRST Marist -5 @ MAN Manhattan

Manhattan is catching 5 points at home, and the books might be a step behind the Jaspers' recent surge.

Manhattan just won three straight games — two on the road at Canisius and Niagara, then took down Sacred Heart at home. That's significant because this team is 8-5 at home versus a dismal 4-11 on the road. They've found their footing in Draddy Gymnasium, where they score efficiently and play with defensive intensity. Meanwhile, Marist limps in on a 1-3 slide, including getting throttled 56-81 at Merrimack and losing at home to Siena. The Red Foxes are just 6-7 on the road and shoot a paltry 40.9% from the field overall — that number gets worse away from home.

Here's the angle the line undervalues: Manhattan's offensive firepower is legitimately dangerous. They hung 95 on Rider at home in their last game there, and four players — Flores, Mulligan, Pickett, Winston — all average 15+ PPG. That's balanced, efficient scoring. Marist's defense is mediocre (allowing 71+ PPG consistently), and they've struggled to contain hot-shooting guards all season. Flores (37.4% from three) and Winston (38.7%) will exploit Marist's perimeter defense, which has been leaky in road losses.

The line moved from 5 to 4.5 at most books, suggesting sharp money on Manhattan. But Fanduel is still hanging 5, giving us extra value. Marist's road woes are real — they've lost by double digits at Merrimack and Fairfield recently. This Manhattan team is peaking at the right time, plays with confidence at home, and has the offensive balance to exploit a Marist squad that's trending downward.

The pick: Manhattan +5 at -110. 3 units.

Marist should win, but 5 points is too many for a road team shooting 40% against a home squad on a three-game win streak with four legitimate scorers. This lands in the 2-4 point range, making the +5 a gift. If you want additional exposure, Over 142 is worth a sprinkle (2 units) — Manhattan's recent games have been high-scoring, and Marist's defensive lapses should keep this game in the 145-150 range.