WAKE Wake Forest @ VT Virginia Tech -4.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies

The narrative here is simple: Virginia Tech is reeling, and the market hasn't fully caught up. The Hokies dropped consecutive home games to Florida State (69-92 blowout) and Miami (66-67 heartbreaker), and now they're getting inflated respect as 4.5-point favorites against a Wake Forest squad that's figured something out offensively. VT is 13-4 at home, sure — but three of those four home losses have come in their last five games. The shine is wearing off.

Wake Forest is averaging 77.8 PPG compared to VT's 70.2, and they're doing it more efficiently: 45.3% FG vs 42.4%, plus better free throw shooting (75.2% vs 66.5%). The Deacs just dropped 85 on Clemson at home, 83 on Georgia Tech on the road, and their interior duo of Visser and Williams is shooting a combined 60% from the floor. VT's paint defense — allowing nearly 15 offensive boards per game — is going to get cooked by Wake's size and offensive rebounding prowess.

The line split is interesting. Caesars and Fanatics have this at -5, suggesting some sharp movement toward Wake. DraftKings and the majors are still at -4.5, which feels stale given VT's recent slide. Even if the Hokies grind this one out at home, I don't see them covering. They've lost five of their last six games overall, and the two wins during that stretch came against mid-tier Georgia Tech and a struggling NC State squad.

The key angle: VT's offensive efficiency has cratered. They scored 66 and 69 in consecutive home games — both under 70 against ACC competition. Wake's defense isn't elite, but they don't need to be when they're scoring in the high 70s and low 80s. This becomes a pace-and-efficiency battle, and Wake wins both.

The pick: Wake Forest +4.5 at -110. 3 units.

If VT wins, it's by a field goal. More likely, Wake steals this one outright on the road.

Secondary angle: Over 151.5 at -112. 2 units. Wake's been over in four of their last five, and VT's defensive cracks are showing. This total feels too low for a desperate home team that needs to push tempo to mask their shooting woes.