DEP DePaul @ CREI Creighton -4.5

The Revenge Narrative No One's Talking About

DePaul stole one at home 14 days ago, winning 72-71 in a game Creighton controlled until they didn't. The Bluejays shot 49% from the field and 37% from three — efficient enough to win — but coughed up 16 turnovers and watched DePaul convert offensive boards into second-chance points down the stretch. Now Creighton gets them at CHI Health Center, where they're 11-4 and averaging 81.2 PPG compared to 75.3 on the road. The line has settled at -4.5 on DraftKings while sharper books like FanDuel and BetRivers moved to -5.5, suggesting respect for Creighton's home edge.

Here's the angle: DePaul is 2-8 away from home and gets torched defensively on the road. They're allowing 75.1 PPG away compared to 63.8 at home — an 11-point swing. Creighton's elite three-point shooting (39.0% as a team, with Nate Funk at 46.9% and Booker Woodfox at 47.6%) thrives in the spacious home environment, and they just got embarrassed 52-81 at St. John's three days ago. That's the kind of blowout loss that refocuses a veteran team, especially with four days to prepare for a revenge spot.

The pace mismatch favors Creighton too. They average 16.9 assists per game (elite ball movement) while DePaul turns it over 14.9 times and struggles to defend without fouling on the road. Creighton's 8.3 steals per game will feast on DePaul's careless ballhandling in transition. The Blue Demons' road offense is anemic — 64.8 PPG away from home — and they're facing a Creighton team that just watched film of themselves getting boat-raced and knows they can't afford another home loss with tournament seeding on the line.

The Pick: Creighton -4.5 (-110) | 4 Units

Creighton covers by double digits. They're 11-4 at home for a reason, and DePaul's road splits are brutal. Expect Funk and Woodfox to go nuclear from three, Creighton to force 15+ turnovers, and the Bluejays to build a lead in the first half that DePaul can't overcome. The secondary play is Under 142.5 at 2 units — DePaul's road offense is so bad (64.8 PPG) that even if Creighton hits 80, we're still safe.