Robert Morris is rolling into this Horizon League showdown on a 5-game win streak, and the market is undervaluing how dominant they've been at home. The Colonials are 11-3 at their place this season, and when you dig into the tape, you'll see why this 8.5-point spread isn't nearly enough.
The Angle: Shooting Splits and Home Court Variance
Detroit Mercy comes in 6-8 on the road, and here's the kicker — their two best scorers, Jon Goode and Brandon Cotton, are volume shooters who rely heavily on rhythm threes. Goode is hitting 44.6% from deep on the season, but road variance for perimeter-dependent guards is real. Robert Morris's defense generates 5.4 steals per game and forces opponents into contested looks. Meanwhile, the Colonials have five guys averaging 15+ PPG — that's balanced, efficient scoring that travels. Tony Lee is shooting 59.3% from the floor, DeSean Goode is at 63.8%, and their two-headed monster of McCrommon and Jackson are both drilling threes at 40%+.
Detroit Mercy's offensive identity depends on generating 13.3 assists per game, but Robert Morris's length and home crowd disruption will force them into tough isolation looks. The Colonials just dropped 93 on Oakland at home and 85 at Cleveland State — they're peaking at the right time. Detroit's last road win? February 12th. Since then, they've beaten Green Bay and Milwaukee at home. This is a team that hasn't proven they can win anywhere uncomfortable lately.
The Pick: Robert Morris -8.5 (-110) | 3 Units
I'm laying the points. Robert Morris wins this by 12+. Their shooting efficiency (47% FG, 36.7% 3P) paired with home-court advantage and superior depth makes this a mismatch. Detroit Mercy will hang around for a half, but the Colonials' balanced attack and defensive pressure will break them open in the second half. The Titans don't have the firepower to keep pace on the road against a team clicking on all cylinders.
Secondary Play: Over 150.5 (-110) | 2 Units
Both teams push tempo — Detroit Mercy averages 13.3 assists (ball movement = pace), and Robert Morris just hung 93 at home. The Colonials' last four home games have averaged 160+ total points. This number is too low for two teams that want to run.
| DETM | RMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 70.9 | PPG | 71.3 |
| 48.0% | FG% | 47.0% |
| 34.5% | 3PT% | 36.7% |
| 33.6 | RPG | 30.8 |
| 13.3 | APG | 11.5 |
| 6.3 | SPG | 5.4 |
| 11.8 | TOPG | 13.6 |
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Goode | 19.3 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Brandon Cotton | 18.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Orlando Lovejoy | 14.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Chase Simon | 14.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| Ryvon Covile | 13.7 | 10.6 | 0.9 |
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaz McCrommon | 17.0 | 5.3 | 2.6 |
| A.J. Jackson | 17.0 | 9.2 | 1.2 |
| Jeremy Chappell | 16.7 | 6.3 | 3.2 |
| Tony Lee | 15.9 | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| DeSean Goode | 15.4 | 8.6 | 1.3 |
| Opp | Score | |
|---|---|---|
| H | Green Bay | 74-70 |
| H | Milwaukee | 91-86 |
| H | Youngstown State | 76-70 |
| A | Wright State | 77-74 |
| A | Green Bay | 63-76 |
| Opp | Score | |
|---|---|---|
| A | Wright State | 81-68 |
| H | Oakland | 93-69 |
| A | Cleveland State | 85-68 |
| A | Youngstown State | 72-66 |
| H | Wright State | 72-66 |
| Book | Spread | ML Away | ML Home | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -8.5 | — | — | 150.5 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 | 310 | -400 | 150.5 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 | 290 | -375 | 150.5 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 | 325 | -455 | 150.5 |
| Caesars | -8.5 | 278 | -355 | 150.5 |
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