Chicago State is 2-16 on the road this season. Let me repeat that: 2-16. And those two wins? Both came at weak mid-majors where they scored 63 points. This isn't a team that travels well—it's a team that barely travels at all.
Long Island is 9-2 at home, and while they just lost at Mercyhurst, that was a road game in a high-scoring shootout (91-83) that doesn't change the fundamental reality: they're a different animal at home. The Sharks have five scorers averaging double-figures, led by Wisseh's 17.6 ppg and 5.7 apg. They share the ball (14.3 apg) and crash the glass hard (14.8 OREB/game). Chicago State gives up boards—they're getting hammered on the defensive glass all season—and LIU feasts on those second chances.
Here's the angle the books might be undervaluing: Chicago State's offensive efficiency collapses on the road. They're averaging 63.2 ppg overall, but on the road? Multiple games in the 50s and low 60s. Even in their recent home win over Central Connecticut (70-51), they needed a friendly rim. LIU's home defense locks in—they held Wagner to 57 and 65 in back-to-back games, and Stonehill to 54. The Cougars don't have the firepower to keep pace, even with Holston's 25.9 ppg. One guy can't beat five at this level.
The total also screams value. LIU has gone under 140.5 in four of their last six games. Chicago State has hit under in five straight road games. Both teams play deliberate offense (LIU's 3P% is just 30.8%), and in conference play, these Northeast teams grind. The pace will be slower than the market expects, and Chicago State simply won't score enough to push this over.
The Pick: Under 140.5 (-114)
Confidence: 4 units
LIU wins this game by 15-18, but it's an ugly, defensive slog. Think 78-60, 75-58. Chicago State's road offense is anemic, LIU's home defense is legit, and the math points to a grind-it-out conference game that stays well under the number. Lock it.
Secondary Pick: Long Island University -12.5 (-110)
Secondary Confidence: 2 units
| CHST | LIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 63.2 | PPG | 75.1 |
| 44.2% | FG% | 43.8% |
| 33.2% | 3PT% | 30.8% |
| 32.8 | RPG | 40.6 |
| 12.1 | APG | 14.3 |
| 7.2 | SPG | 6.6 |
| 17.4 | TOPG | 17.3 |
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Holston | 25.9 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
| John Cantrell | 19.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 |
| Royce Parran | 18.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| Craig Franklin | 14.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| CJ Ray | 13.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| Player | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaytornah Wisseh | 17.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| James Williams | 16.6 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| Jamal Fuller | 16.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 |
| Malachi Davis | 14.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Greg Gordon | 13.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 |
| Opp | Score | |
|---|---|---|
| H | Central Connecticut | 70-51 |
| H | Fairleigh Dickinson | 59-60 |
| A | Le Moyne | 63-81 |
| H | Stonehill | 68-55 |
| H | Saint Francis | 80-75 |
| Opp | Score | |
|---|---|---|
| A | Mercyhurst | 83-91 |
| A | Saint Francis | 91-89 |
| H | Wagner | 83-65 |
| A | New Haven | 52-55 |
| A | Wagner | 67-57 |
| Book | Spread | ML Away | ML Home | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | -12.5 | 575 | -1000 | 140.5 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 | 625 | -1000 | 140.5 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 | 650 | -1000 | 140.5 |
Members get daily picks, deep analysis, and confidence ratings across 7 sportsbooks. Limited membership.
Get Access