COLG Colgate @ NAVY Navy -6.5

Navy Hosts Colgate in Revenge Spot, But Look at the Shooting Numbers

Navy just beat Colgate 84-80 at Colgate two weeks ago in a track meet. Now they get them at home where they're 13-2, fresh off an absolute boat race against Loyola Maryland (78-51). The Mids are rolling with five straight wins, and the market is telling you to lay 6.5 in a rematch.

Here's the problem everyone's missing: Navy can't shoot. They're hitting 32.7% from three and 65% from the line — brutal efficiency numbers for a team averaging just 60.8 PPG. They grind you to death with pace (17 turnovers forced per game), but in a rematch against a team that just saw them, that edge diminishes. Colgate shoots 44.2% overall and 35.2% from deep — significantly better. They also move the ball (14.4 APG vs Navy's 12.3) and turn it over less (14.3 vs 17.0).

The first meeting went 84-80 because Colgate kept it close despite playing at Navy's breakneck tempo. Now Navy's at home, but Colgate is 7-8 on the road — not great, but competitive. And here's the kicker: Colgate just lost to Lafayette 69-70 at home. That's a letdown spot, but it also means they're pissed off and focused for a revenge game against a team ahead of them in the Patriot League standings.

Navy wins on defense and pace. Colgate wins on shooting and ball security. In a rematch where adjustments matter, give me the better-shooting team getting nearly a touchdown. Colgate's top three scorers (Roemer 18.8, Cox 17.6, Alekseyenko 14.7) all shoot above 49% from the field. Navy's defense is stout, but 6.5 is too many points for a team that scores 61 per game and relies on chaos over execution.

The Pick: Colgate +6.5 at -110. This stays inside a possession. Navy wins by 3-5 in a grinder.

Confidence: 3 units. Colgate covers or wins outright.

Secondary angle: The total is 143.5, and that first meeting went 164. But Navy just held Loyola Maryland to 51 and Lehigh to 49 in their last two home games. Colgate's coming off a 69-point home loss. Both teams are motivated to tighten up. I lean Under 143.5 here as a 2-unit secondary play. Navy slows this down, Colgate focuses on half-court execution, and we see a 70-68 type game.

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