SDST South Dakota State -2.5 @ SDAK South Dakota

The Rivalry Rematch Nobody's Talking About

Three weeks ago, South Dakota walked into Brookings and stole a 68-67 road win against South Dakota State — one of just three wins the Coyotes have managed away from home all season. Now the Jackrabbits come to Vermillion as 2.5-point favorites in what should be a coin flip, and the market's telling us something smells off.

Here's the angle: South Dakota is being criminally undervalued at home. The Coyotes are 12-5 in Vermillion this year — that's a .706 home win rate from a team sitting at .500 overall. Meanwhile, SDSU is 5-10 on the road and just got off a back-to-back with only two days rest after traveling to Kansas City. South Dakota had three full days to prepare for this rivalry game in front of their crowd.

The offensive firepower tilts heavily toward the home side. South Dakota's averaging 66.2 PPG overall, but they just dropped 89 on Omaha at home three days ago. They've got four players shooting 38%+ from three and Jesse Becker is a flamethrower at 54.2% from deep on the year. Compare that to SDSU's 63.3 PPG — a full three points lower — and their tendency to turn the ball over (18.5 per game vs USD's 15). Nate Wolters is a stud, but he can't beat this lineup alone in a hostile environment.

The first meeting was a one-point game. Now South Dakota gets the home-court advantage they didn't have last time, extra rest, and a chance to sweep the season series. The Jackrabbits are catching a spread that implies they're the better team — but the situational spots, the home/away splits, and the head-to-head result all say otherwise.

The Pick: South Dakota +2.5 (-110) — 3 units

I'm also sprinkling the moneyline at +124. If USD can win this game straight up at home — which they already did on the road — getting plus-money in Vermillion is a gift. The Coyotes protect their home court, and SDSU's road woes continue.

Secondary Pick: South Dakota ML (+124) — 2 units