This is a classic case of the market falling in love with a home team’s preferred style of play while ignoring the superior opponent’s ability to dictate terms. The story here is pace. Georgia wants a track meet, a chaotic, high-possession game where their volume shooting can overwhelm an opponent. That’s why you see a sky-high total of 179.5. Alabama, on the other hand, is a disciplined, efficient team that wins by executing in the half-court and strangling you defensively. They are comfortable winning games in the 70s, as shown by their recent 71-69 victory in a brutal road environment at Tennessee.
My primary angle is that this total is a massive overreaction to Georgia’s recent scores. The market is assuming the Bulldogs will get their way on their home floor, but Alabama is not just any opponent. They are 8-2 on the road this season and have the personnel to grind this game to a halt. Georgia scores a lot (79.2 PPG), but they are incredibly inefficient, with their top guards shooting in the low 40s from the field. Alabama’s defense, which travels well, will force them into tough, contested shots late in the shot clock. The Tide will not get sucked into a shootout. They’ll use the clock, work for high-percentage looks for stars like Labaron Philon Jr. (50.8% FG) and Richard Hendrix (59.8% FG), and limit transition opportunities. For this game to approach 180 points, both teams need to be firing on all cylinders in an up-tempo game. I only see one team wanting that, and they’re the inferior side.
Simply put, the better, more disciplined, and more efficient team will control the tempo. Alabama has won six straight games and knows exactly what its identity is. They aren’t going to abandon their winning formula to play Georgia’s game. This number is inflated by at least 8-10 points based on the likely pace of play. We’re fading the public perception and taking the contrarian, but correct, side of the total.
PICK: Under 179.5
CONFIDENCE: 4 Units