CHST Chicago State @ LIU Long Island University -11.5

The Revenge Game That Isn't

Long Island just beat Chicago State by 17 six days ago. The books have set this rematch at -12.5, essentially telling us: nothing changes. But here's the thing — LIU is at home this time, where they're 11-2 with a 13.8-point average margin. Chicago State is 2-18 on the road and got boat-raced in that first meeting, 73-56. The sharp angle? The books are undervaluing home court and Chicago State's total lack of adjustment ability.

The line disagreement across books (ranging from -11.5 to -12.5) tells me there's uncertainty about this number. I see value in the higher spread. Chicago State's road profile is dismal — they've been blown out by quality mid-majors all season and have shown zero ability to tighten up defensive gaps. LIU, meanwhile, is rolling at home with balanced scoring (five guys averaging double figures) and the kind of depth that wears down undermanned opponents in the second half.

What the line might not account for: pace and rebounding. LIU averages 14.8 offensive boards per game — nearly three more per game than Chicago State. That's second-chance points and extended possessions. Chicago State plays fast out of desperation, which plays directly into LIU's hands. In the first meeting, LIU controlled tempo and forced 17 turnovers. Expect more of the same, but amplified by crowd energy and familiarity.

Chicago State's offense runs through David Holston (25.9 ppg), but he shot 5-for-15 in the first meeting. LIU has his number. Without him going nuclear, the Cougars can't crack 65 on the road. LIU's floor is 75+ at home, and they've covered double-digit spreads against weaker opponents all season.

The Pick: Long Island University -12.5 (-110) — 3 units. LIU should win this by 18-20. The spread is artificially low because of recency bias (the first game was "only" 17). But that was neutral court energy. At home, with a revenge narrative flipped, LIU buries them. This is a "turn the game off at halftime" spot.

Secondary Pick: Under 137.5 (-110) — 2 units. Chicago State's road offense is anemic (averaging under 60 in true road games), and LIU doesn't need to run-and-gun at home. Expect a controlled, methodical beatdown.