CREI Creighton @ BUT Butler -2.5

This game is the classic “profile vs reality” spot: Creighton looks like the better team on paper (79.1 PPG, 49.8% FG, 39.0% from three), but the market is pricing the thing that’s been most predictive for them all year — they’ve been a different animal away from home. Butler doesn’t need to out-talent Creighton; they need to keep it in the halfcourt, stay attached to shooters, and let Hinkle Fieldhouse + rest do the heavy lifting.

Two angles I don’t think the -2.5 fully captures:

1) Creighton’s travel tax is real. They’re 3-10 on the road. That’s not just “variance”; it’s a consistent drop-off in execution, and it shows up in their recent away results (including the 52-point dud at St. John’s). Butler, meanwhile, is 11-6 at home and has been competitive even in losses vs top-tier Big East teams.

2) Rest + matchup leverage for Butler. Butler is on 7 days rest vs Creighton on 4, and Butler’s offense is built to punish teams that overhelp: they shoot 39.1% from three and 47.5% overall. Creighton’s defense isn’t listed here, but their style (high assist rate 16.9 APG, higher TO at 13.6) tends to create a wider performance band on the road—when the ball sticks or turnovers spike, the “elite efficiency” disappears fast.

I’m laying it with the home team. Butler has multiple creators (Brandon Polk/Finley Bizjack/A.J. Graves) plus a real glass presence in Michael Ajayi (11.1 RPG) to stabilize possessions. If this comes down to late-game execution, I’d rather have the rested home favorite than the road team that’s been bleeding close ones (lost by 1 to DePaul, lost by 3 to Providence).

Pick: Butler -2.5 (3 units). Secondary look: Under 154.5 (2 units) — this number assumes Creighton’s full offensive output travels, and Butler’s best path is controlling pace and forcing longer possessions.