CREI Creighton @ BUT Butler -2.5

This matchup is a classic March case of two teams on entirely different trajectories, and the market hasn't fully priced in the severity of the road team's collapse. The narrative here isn't just about home court advantage; it's about a Creighton team that is fundamentally broken away from Omaha, walking into a hornet's nest against a Butler squad that's had a full week to rest and prepare. Creighton's high-flying offensive numbers are a mirage built in their home gym. On the road, they are a mess.

The primary angle is Creighton's abysmal road performance. A 3-10 record away from home tells part of the story, but the recent results are even more damning. They just got boat-raced by 29 at St. John's, scoring a pathetic 52 points. They also have two recent losses to a terrible DePaul team. This isn't just a team that struggles on the road; they look completely lost. Their season-long offensive metrics (79.1 PPG, 49.8% FG) mean nothing when their road identity is this fragile.

The second, and perhaps more critical, angle is the massive rest disparity. Butler hasn't played in seven days. Creighton is on just four days' rest. In early March, with legs getting heavy across the country, that is a monumental advantage. Butler will be fresher, more focused, and has had extra days to scout a reeling opponent and devise a game plan to exploit their weaknesses at Hinkle Fieldhouse, where the Bulldogs are a respectable 11-6. This isn't just a scheduled home game for Butler; it's an ambush spot.

We're fading a team in freefall. Creighton has lost four of its last five games and is showing no signs of life on the road. Giving just 2.5 points with a well-rested and capable home team is a gift. Butler will control the tempo, grind down a tired Creighton offense, and win this game by at least two possessions.

The Pick: Butler -2.5
Confidence: 4 Units