CREI Creighton @ BUT Butler -2.5

The narrative here is brutal: two desperate teams limping into March, both barely above .500, both coming off losses, both clinging to NCAA Tournament hopes. But the key difference? Butler gets a full week to reset, while Creighton staggers in on short rest having lost 5 of their last 6. This isn't about talent — Creighton actually shoots better and scores more. It's about timing, rest, and home court salvation.

Butler's 11-6 home record is their lifeline. Hinkle Fieldhouse has been a refuge all season while they've been abysmal on the road (4-8). Meanwhile, Creighton is a complete disaster away from home at 3-10, and their recent road performances tell the story: 52 points at St. John's, 71 at DePaul (loss), 91 at UConn (rare win), then back-to-back home losses to close the week. They're mentally fried.

The seven-day rest advantage for Butler is massive here. They've had time to digest that Villanova loss, practice, and prepare specifically for this must-win. Creighton played Saturday, now travels Wednesday — standard turnaround but compounded by a brutal stretch. Butler's also the more disciplined team with just 10.7 turnovers per game vs Creighton's 13.6, which matters in a tight game.

The pace angle: Creighton wants to run (79.1 ppg) but Butler grinds (67.5 ppg). At home, Butler dictates tempo. They've held four of their last six opponents under 75 points. Creighton's offensive efficiency evaporates on the road — they've scored 71, 52, and 71 in three of their last four road games.

Butler has five guys in double figures and Michael Ajayi is a double-double machine (16.0/11.1) who dominates the glass. Creighton's interior defense has been soft all year (4.5 bpg team total is okay, but their rebounding margin is just +6 vs Butler's manageable deficit). This becomes a halfcourt slugfest where Butler's home crowd and rest advantage win out.

The line sitting at -2.5 across most books (Fanatics at -3 is the outlier) suggests sharp money hasn't moved this much. That's the opportunity. Butler is desperate, rested, and home. Creighton is tired, road-weary, and mentally defeated.

Pick: Butler -2.5 (-110) — 3 units

Secondary angle: With Butler slowing this down and both teams struggling offensively lately (Butler scored 73 in a loss, Creighton 76 and 71 in consecutive games), I like the Under 154.5 (-105) — 2 units. These teams combine for 146.6 ppg on the season, but context matters. Butler's home grind-it-out style + Creighton's road shooting woes = a 145-148 final.