USC USC @ WASH Washington -6.5

USC Trojans @ Washington Huskies — March 4, 2026

The Story: A Freefall Meets a Sputtering Host

USC is in full-blown crisis mode. Five straight losses — and these aren't close calls against ranked teams. They got demolished by Illinois 65-101 at home, blown out at UCLA 62-81, and just laid an egg against Nebraska 67-82 at home. This is a team that was 18-6 and looking tournament-worthy a month ago, now 18-11 and circling the drain. The confidence is shot.

Washington, at 14-15, isn't exactly lighting the world on fire either. They just got run at home by Wisconsin 73-90. But there's a critical distinction: the Huskies are 10-6 at home, and their losses have been competitive (3 to ranked opponents by single digits). Their core is legitimate — Brandon Roy (20.2 ppg, 40.2% from 3), Pondexter, and the Steinbach-Brockman frontcourt duo combining for 29 rebounds per game.

The Angles

1. USC's Defensive Collapse + Washington's Interior Dominance. USC has been hemorrhaging points — allowing 80.8 PPG over their last five. Washington's frontcourt of Brockman (17.8/11.6) and Steinbach (18.2/11.1) is going to feast against a USC squad that lives and dies by perimeter shooting (32.3% from 3 on the season, likely worse in the skid). Washington's 12.9 offensive rebounds per game will generate second-chance opportunities that a demoralized USC team won't fight for.

2. USC's Road Number is Misleading. That 7-5 road record was built before the collapse. They've lost three of their last four road games, and the body language has been terrible. A late-night cross-conference trip to Seattle where the hosts are rested (4 days off for both, but UW is home) is a tough spot for a team with zero momentum.

3. Steals Won't Save Them. USC leads in steals (9.2 SPG) but they're still losing because they can't convert in the halfcourt. Their 41.7% FG and 32.3% 3PT aren't sustainable against a Washington team that controls tempo and pounds it inside.

The Pick

Washington -6.5 (-110)

The Huskies' frontcourt advantage is massive, their home record is solid, and USC is a broken team right now. Five straight losses with progressively worse body language. Roy and Pondexter will get theirs from the perimeter while Brockman and Steinbach dominate the glass. I expect Washington to lead wire-to-wire and cover comfortably in the 8-12 point range.

Confidence: 3 units

The line feels right, but five-game losing streaks sometimes end randomly. I'll take the home team laying less than a touchdown against a team that's forgotten how to win.