This is a classic "buy the dip" spot on a superior team. The market is panicking after Villanova got absolutely dismantled by St. John's, but one disastrous road game doesn't erase a 22-win season. DePaul is playing its best ball of the year, winning four of its last five, which is exactly why this line is so short. This creates the perfect storm for us: a depressed price on an elite team in a prime bounce-back spot against a mid-tier opponent playing above its head.
The key angle the line isn't fully pricing in is the massive discrepancy in the "hustle" stats that travel on the road. Villanova is an elite offensive rebounding team, pulling down a staggering 14.5 per game. This creates second and third chances that demoralize opponents and mask shooting slumps. On the other side, DePaul is incredibly sloppy with the basketball, coughing it up nearly 15 times per contest. Villanova’s guards are opportunistic, and this matchup screams "live-ball turnovers leading to easy transition points." That combination of extra possessions from offensive boards and DePaul giveaways will be the difference.
Don't overthink the St. John's game. That was an anomaly, an ambush. This is a veteran Villanova squad with five players averaging over 16 points per game. They're embarrassed, they've had four days to stew on it, and now they get a DePaul team they are simply more talented than at every position. DePaul has played well defensively in its recent stretch, but containing the balanced, multi-pronged attack of Foye, Ray, Reynolds, and Sumpter is a task they are not equipped for over a full 40 minutes. Lay the short number with the angry, superior team. This is a get-right game, and Villanova wins it by 8-10 points.