Archive
All Picks
Sunday, Mar 1
0W-1L
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Saturday, Feb 28
4W-1L
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POR
Portland Trail Blazers
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CHA
Charlotte Hornets
-7.5
Portland Trail Blazers +7.5
LOSS
Portland's road defense and Charlotte's home letdown spot make the 7.5 points too many β this should be closer to a pick'em
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
-4.5
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GSW
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers +4.5
WIN
Lakers' elite road record and rest advantage are undervalued against an inconsistent Warriors home team in a pace-controlled game
HOU
Houston Rockets
-2.5
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MIA
Miami Heat
Miami Heat +3.5
WIN
Miami's massive home/road split and market disagreement make +3.5 a steal against a good but not great road Rockets team
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
-6.5
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UTA
Utah Jazz
New Orleans Pelicans -6.5
WIN
Pelicans riding momentum and back-to-back scheduling edge against a Jazz team that can't defend or respondβsharps already moved this to 6.
TOR
Toronto Raptors
-13.5
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WAS
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +13.5
WIN
Fading recency bias on an inflated road favorite number against a bad-but-not-dead home dog with rest and venue shift working in their favor.
Friday, Feb 27
3W-2L
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NYK
New York Knicks
-8.5
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MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5
LOSS
Milwaukee's riding a 4-game home win streak and just beat Cleveland, who dominated the Knicks by 15 three days ago β 8.5 points is too many for a surging underdog with momentum and crowd energy
BKN
Brooklyn Nets
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BOS
Boston Celtics
-18.5
Boston Celtics -17.5
WIN
Celtics coming home rested after a bad loss to face a cooked Nets team on 6-game skid β lay the lumber on a get-right spot against a terrible road team.
DEN
Denver Nuggets
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OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
-8.5
Denver Nuggets +8.5
WIN
Denver's road excellence and rest edge exploits a fatigued OKC team overvalued after one bad road loss β take the points with the better-rested squad.
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
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DET
Detroit Pistons
-6.5
Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5
WIN
Sharp money has moved this line down to 6 at most books, but DraftKings is holding 6.5 β Cleveland's road form and motivation after a tough Milwaukee loss make this a clear value play on the dog.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
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DAL
Dallas Mavericks
-4.5
Dallas Mavericks -4.5
LOSS
Dallas rebounds at home against a Grizzlies squad in freefall, exploiting Memphis' brutal road form and three-game slide
Thursday, Feb 26
4W-6L
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POR
Portland Trail Blazers
-4.5
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CHI
Chicago Bulls
Portland Trail Blazers -4.5
WIN
Portland catching a Bulls team in total freefall at home β six straight losses, no defense, no fight, and sharp money already moved this line a full point.
MIN
Minnesota Timberwolves
-5.5
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LAC
LA Clippers
LA Clippers -5.5
LOSS
Clippers are rested, motivated by recent blowout win over Minnesota, and catching the Wolves on short rest after a West Coast grind β this spread is a gift.
CHA
Charlotte Hornets
-12.5
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IND
Indiana Pacers
Charlotte Hornets -12.5
WIN
Charlotte's elite road form and offensive rhythm against Indiana's tanking defense and 4-game home skid makes this spread playable despite the double-digit number.
WAS
Washington Wizards
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ATL
Atlanta Hawks
-10.5
Under 233.5
WIN
Washington slows the pace after getting torched in transition Monday β Atlanta coasts late and this stays low 220s.
MIA
Miami Heat
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PHI
Philadelphia 76ers
-1.5
Miami Heat +2.5
LOSS
Books can't agree on this spread (ranges -1.5 to -2.5), and Miami's getting extra cushion while Philly's home splits are dead even and their recent home offense has been shaky before this road trip
SAS
San Antonio Spurs
-12.5
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BKN
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets +12.5
LOSS
Spurs on a back-to-back against a team with no stakes β classic schedule spot where the favorite wins but doesn't cover the inflated number.
HOU
Houston Rockets
-2.5
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ORL
Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic +2.5
LOSS
Orlando's 18-10 home record and rest advantage against a road-weary Houston squad creates value on the home dog catching 2.5 or more.
LAL
Los Angeles Lakers
-5.5
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PHX
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns +5.5
WIN
Phoenix at home getting 5.5 after back-to-back blowout losses against a Lakers team lurching between highs and lows β line is 1-point off consensus and Suns defend at home.
NOP
New Orleans Pelicans
-4.5
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UTA
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz +4.5
LOSS
Utah gets 3 days rest at home against a road-weary Pelicans team on a back-to-back, playing their first true away game in weeks.
SAC
Sacramento Kings
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DAL
Dallas Mavericks
-6.5
Under 234.5
LOSS
Kings are dead on arrival in a B2B road spot, and the inflated total begs for an ugly grind-it-out Under as Dallas coasts late
Wednesday, Feb 25
3W-3L
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SAS
San Antonio Spurs
-7.5
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TOR
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors +7.5
WIN
Fading public overreaction to Spurs' hot streak β Toronto getting 16.5 points better than yesterday's OKC line in a classic schedule spot trap
BOS
Boston Celtics
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DEN
Denver Nuggets
-3.5
Denver Nuggets -3.5
WIN
Denver rested at altitude catches a tired Boston team on their third road game in five days β sharps already moved this line from -4.
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
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DET
Detroit Pistons
-8.5
Detroit Pistons +7.5
WIN
Detroit rested and motivated at home, catching 7.5 against an elite OKC team on a road back-to-back β line is 2 points too high
GSW
Golden State Warriors
-3.5
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MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5
LOSS
Warriors on a back-to-back road trip against a Grizzlies team with extra rest and revenge from a close loss two weeks ago β taking the live home dog and the points.
SAC
Sacramento Kings
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HOU
Houston Rockets
-14.5
Sacramento Kings +14.5
LOSS
Houston in a classic letdown spot after a blowout win, while Sacramento's tanking-with-effort formula keeps them competitive enough to cover inflated road spreads
CLE
Cleveland Cavaliers
-8.5
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MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks -8.5
LOSS
Milwaukee's offensive momentum and Cleveland's back-to-back road spot make this spread 2 points too low β take the Bucks.
Tuesday, Feb 24
3W-0L
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CHA
Charlotte Hornets
-8.5
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CHI
Chicago Bulls
Charlotte Hornets +8.5
WIN
Chicago's six-game home losing streak and Charlotte's solid road form make this line 2-3 points too high β take the better team getting nearly two possessions.
MIA
Miami Heat
-6.5
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MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5
WIN
Healthy Bucks squad getting disrespected at home against a Heat team that hasn't beaten quality competition in their win streak β lay the number before it moves
BOS
Boston Celtics
-7.5
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PHX
Phoenix Suns
Boston Celtics -6.5
WIN
Boston's defense and road form crush a Phoenix offense that just scored 77 at home and has collapsed over the last two weeks