Archive
All Picks
Saturday, Feb 28
4W-6L
Full card →
VAN
Vanderbilt
@
UK
Kentucky
-1.5
Vanderbilt +1.5
LOSS
Vanderbilt's elite shooting (Foster 46.9% from three, Jenkins 40.8%) exploits Kentucky's defensive lapses, and their 7-3 road record makes them live underdogs in a coin-flip game mispriced by market p
TEX
Texas
@
TA&M
Texas A&M
-2.5
Texas A&M -3.5
LOSS
Texas A&M's elite home record and defensive intensity crush Texas' atrocious road form in a pace-controlled Aggies win.
TOL
Toledo
@
OHIO
Ohio
-1.5
Ohio -1.5
LOSS
Ohio's 7-day rest edge and elite rebounding at home crushes a tired Toledo squad playing their third game in nine days — books missed the rest mismatch by 2-3 points.
UCLA
UCLA
-1.5
@
MINN
Minnesota
Minnesota +1.5
WIN
UCLA's catastrophic road splits (3-7 away, 16-2 home) make them a fade against a Minnesota squad that's 11-6 at home and thrives in low-possession grind games
PROV
Providence
@
CREI
Creighton
-3.5
Providence +2.5
WIN
Providence's elite five-man scoring depth and momentum edge exploits Creighton's four-game home skid at an undervalued number.
VT
Virginia Tech
@
UNC
North Carolina
-6.5
Virginia Tech +6.5
LOSS
Virginia Tech's seven days of prep, offensive rebounding edge (14.9 OREB/game), and pace control keeps this tight against an overvalued UNC home line that should be 4.5-5.
NCCU
North Carolina Central
-2.5
@
DSU
Delaware State
Delaware State +2.5
LOSS
NCCU is 2-13 on the road and can't shoot; Delaware State defends home court and gets a revenge spot with a full week of rest.
DETM
Detroit Mercy
@
OAK
Oakland
-7.5
Detroit Mercy +7.5
WIN
Oakland's shaky home form and porous perimeter defense make them overvalued laying 7.5 to a scrappy Detroit Mercy team that's won 4 of their last 6 true road games.
LOU
Louisville
-1.5
@
CLEM
Clemson
Louisville -1.5
LOSS
Louisville's 13-point offensive edge and Clemson's four-game slide make this line 2-3 points too kind to the home dog.
BUCK
Bucknell
@
LEH
Lehigh
-5.5
Lehigh -5.5
WIN
Lehigh's elite three-point shooting attack feasts on Bucknell's road defensive struggles in a home game where momentum and efficiency align
Friday, Feb 27
9W-11L
Full card →
SIE
Siena
-1
@
FAIR
Fairfield
Siena -1
LOSS
Siena's superior offensive efficiency, 10-6 road record, and ball movement edge make them the side in a coin-flip line that should be -2.5 or -3.
DAY
Dayton
@
GW
George Washington
-3.5
George Washington -3.5
LOSS
George Washington's home dominance and balanced scoring exploits Dayton's road struggles in a buy-low spot on the home favorite
USM
Southern Miss
@
USA
South Alabama
-5.5
South Alabama -5.5
LOSS
South Alabama dominates a Southern Miss team that's 3-12 on the road and can't shoot, while the Jags have already beaten them head-to-head 13 days ago.
ULM
UL Monroe
@
TROY
Troy
-19.5
Troy -18.5
LOSS
Troy's home offense and elite three-point shooting exploits Monroe's porous road defense in a revenge spot with fresher legs.
MAN
Manhattan
@
SPU
Saint Peter's
-8
Saint Peter's -8
WIN
Saint Peter's is 12-1 at home, Manhattan is 4-11 on the road, and the Peacocks already beat them by 5 at Manhattan's place three weeks ago — now they get them in the fortress.
UL
Louisiana
@
ARST
Arkansas State
-14.5
Arkansas State -13.5
WIN
Arkansas State already torched Louisiana by 17 eight days ago and now gets them at home where they're 10-4 and scoring 77 PPG — the rematch is a layup.
DEN
Denver Nuggets
@
OKC
Oklahoma City Thunder
-8.5
Denver Nuggets +8.5
WIN
Denver's road excellence and rest edge exploits a fatigued OKC team overvalued after one bad road loss — take the points with the better-rested squad.
NYK
New York Knicks
-8.5
@
MIL
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5
LOSS
Milwaukee's riding a 4-game home win streak and just beat Cleveland, who dominated the Knicks by 15 three days ago — 8.5 points is too many for a surging underdog with momentum and crowd energy
BKN
Brooklyn Nets
@
BOS
Boston Celtics
-18.5
Boston Celtics -17.5
WIN
Celtics coming home rested after a bad loss to face a cooked Nets team on 6-game skid — lay the lumber on a get-right spot against a terrible road team.
HARV
Harvard
-4.5
@
PRIN
Princeton
Harvard -4.5
LOSS
Harvard's road efficiency and rebounding dominance exploits Princeton's collapsing defense and one-dimensional offense.
QUIN
Quinnipiac
-8
@
NIA
Niagara
Niagara +8
WIN
Niagara's five-man scoring attack and Quinnipiac's offensive slump make 8 points too many in a conference rematch that went to the wire three weeks ago
GASO
Georgia Southern
@
MRSH
Marshall
-7.5
Georgia Southern +7.5
WIN
Georgia Southern's elite offense already torched Marshall for 101 points two weeks ago, and the Herd's leaky home defense won't suddenly fix itself in a revenge spot.
RID
Rider
@
IONA
Iona
-12.5
Iona -12.5
WIN
Rider is 0-14 on the road and averaging 9 fewer PPG away from home — Iona's balanced attack covers comfortably at home.
ODU
Old Dominion
-1.5
@
GAST
Georgia State
Georgia State +1.5
LOSS
Georgia State's home offense and ODU's 3-14 road record make this underdog the sharp side before the line flips.
CCU
Coastal Carolina
@
JMU
James Madison
-5.5
James Madison -5.5
LOSS
James Madison's interior dominance and home-court defense edge exploits Coastal Carolina's perimeter reliance and turnover issues in a conference rematch
MICH
Michigan
-1.5
@
ILL
Illinois
Illinois +2.5
LOSS
Illinois gets the extra rest, home court, and pace advantage against a grind-it-out Michigan team — books disagree by a full point, take the higher number
APP
App State
@
TXST
Texas State
-1.5
App State +1.5
LOSS
App State's offensive firepower and the sharp line disagreement across books make +1.5 a value play against Texas State's home-court dominance.
DART
Dartmouth
@
PENN
Pennsylvania
-7.5
Pennsylvania -7.5
WIN
Penn's elite shooting and home dominance crush Dartmouth's anemic offense in a double-digit Ivy League blowout
MRMK
Merrimack
-9.5
@
CAN
Canisius
Canisius +9.5
WIN
Merrimack can't cover double digits on the road against a rested home dog — their offense is too slow and pedestrian away from home.
MEM
Memphis Grizzlies
@
DAL
Dallas Mavericks
-4.5
Dallas Mavericks -4.5
LOSS
Dallas rebounds at home against a Grizzlies squad in freefall, exploiting Memphis' brutal road form and three-game slide